我国人口预期寿命分析与预测

本文通过对我国人口年龄和性别构成现状的分析,运用蒋庆琅法利用2003年我国人口抽样和死亡率资料编制当年的简略寿命表,估算我国现阶段人口的预期寿命。接着,对我国自解放至今人口预期寿命的变化及其原因进行分析,并最终利用我国自第四次人口普查至第五次人口普查阶段人口预期寿命增长率等相关资料,对我国人口2001-2020年的预期寿命作出预测,得出今后我国人口预期寿命将继续增长,但增长率依年度的推移而递减。

The Analysis and Prediction of Life Expectancy in Our Country

By analyzing the composition of the population group in terms of age and gender, the author comes up with a short life table using the data of the sample death rate in 2003, applying the method proposed by Qinglang Jiang. The life expectancy of the current population is also estimated. Thereafter, the author continues with analyzing the change of the life expectancy in the whole population from liberation to present, as well as suggesting possible reasons that might have resulted in these changes. In the end, the life expectancy of the whole population in our country from 2001-2020 is predicted, using the fourth and fifth nationwide census data. We get a conclusion in the end that the life expectancy will continue to grow but the growth rate will decrease annually.