Quality of Life from the Voting Booth: The Effect of Crime Rates and Income on Recent U.S. Presidential Elections |
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Authors: | Michael R Hagerty |
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Institution: | (1) Graduate School of Management, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA |
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Abstract: | Quality of Life (QOL) is often measured with surveys of citizen’s satisfaction. In contrast, the current research uses already-existing
voting data to infer citizens’ perceptions of QOL. Under this model, citizens decide how much their QOL has improved (or declined)
since the last election, and then vote to reward (or punish) the incumbent party accordingly. Analysis of the popular vote
for the incumbent party then allows inference on how citizens judge their QOL and how they weight the various domains. Previous
research has concluded that voters reward an incumbent who improves the economic domain prior to election. I test whether
voters also reward declining crime rates, and estimate how citizens weight the relative importance of each in determining
QOL. I analyze the vote shares by state from U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 1996. Results show that changes in crime
rates do influence vote share, consistent with the responsibility hypothesis, but to a smaller degree than the economic domain
does. The method described provides convergent evidence that citizens weight domains differentially, and can provide the weights
for a national QOL index. |
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Keywords: | election forecasting quality of life responsibility hypothesis violent crime rate |
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