短期波动对长期增长的效应 ——基于省际面板数据的经验证据

 短期波动对长期增长的效应如何具有重要的政策含义，本文旨在从一般的意义上对我国短期波动对长期增长的效应进行经验分析。使用1953-2004年我国27个省级地区经济波动和增长的面板数据及两种数据形式和计量方法，我们发现：20世纪90年代以前我国各地区短期波动对长期增长具有相同的负面效应，然而，20世纪90年代以后，各地区短期波动对长期增长的效应具有异质性，有的地区该效应为正，有的地区为负。

The Long-Term Effect of Short-Term Fluctuation on Growth:the Evidence of Panel Data of Provinces of China

The effect of short-term fluctuation on economic growth has important policy implications.This paper aims to provide the general empirical evidence on effect in China.It uses the panel data of 27 Chinese provinces over the period from 1953 to 2004 and two sorts of data and employs two econometric methods.The analysis suggests that there were homogeneous long-term negative effects in different provinces prior to 1990.However,there are heterogeneous long-term effects after 1990,while the effect is positive in some provinces and negative in some others.