前景理論及其在博彩研究中的應用

賭徒在博彩中的下注行為,本質上是一個在不確定性的環境中進行決策的行為。經濟學最初在研究這種現象的時候,採用的是期望效用模型。然而,這一模型對很多事實上偏離經濟學理性假設的現象卻解釋不清。另外,赌博行為也並不是一個純粹的經濟學問题,所以期望效用模型對此更加無能為力。上個世紀80年代以來由Kahneman和Tversky發展出的前景理論,為我們認識包括博彩在內的不確定世界提供了一個全新的視角。本文首先回顧了長期在不確定經濟學研究中佔據统治地位的期望效用理論及其存在的主要缺陷,然後介紹了前景理論的基本觀點和有關發展。最後,筆者嘗試用前景理論的框架對賭徒的一些行為進行分析。

Prospect Theory and Its Application to the Study of Gambling

A gambler's decision-making is essentially a choice process taking place under uncertain circumstances. Economists have utilized the expected utility model (EUM) to analyze this issue. However, EUM cannot explicitly explain such phenomena that actually depart from this rational hypothesis. In other words, gambling is not a purely economic issue, so EUM is found to have an Achilles' heel. Thanks to Prospect theory, developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), there is a new angle of view for us to study the uncertainty factor involved in gambling. At the beginning of this paper, I survey the long dominant EUM and the challenges it faces. After that I introduce the main points of Prospect theory. Finally, I make use of the new framework to analyze some kinds of gambling behavior.