国际石油价格波动中的奇异吸引子分析

国际石油价格的波动直接影响我国的经济发展和能源安全系统的稳定性,因此对油价波动的研究具有重要意义。本文通过对国际石油价格中的吸引子的刻画证明了国际石油价格的吸引子是具有分形结构并且对初始条件具有敏感性依赖的奇异吸引子,国际石油系统是处于远离平衡态的非线性系统,吸引子的敏感性使得对石油价格的长期预测成为不可能。

The Analysis of Strange Attractor in the Fluctuation of International Oil Price

The fluctuation of international oil price directly affects the economic development in our country and the stability of energy security system and therefore is of great importance to the research in fluctuation of oil price.Describing the attractor in international oil price,the article proves that the attractor in the international oil price is the strange attractor which owns the fractal structure and is sensitive dependence upon initial condition and the international oil system is a nonlinear system far away from the balance,so the sensitivity of the attractor make the long term forecast impossible.