人口年龄分布与中国居民劳动收入变动研究

文章从代际和年龄角度定量分析了中国居民劳动收入变动模式。研究结果表明,劳动收入变动的年龄效应和代际效应皆表现出明显的线性趋增,且前者大于后者。收入不平等的年龄效应表现出非线性的、加速递增趋势,而不平等的代际效应稳定上升,1960年之后出生队列不平等程度较高。此外,居民劳动收入变动也表现出明显的城乡差异,比较而言,城镇居民收入模式更具优势。由于代际效应和城乡差异是收入差异的重要原因,因此促进代际公平的养老保险和统筹城乡发展的政策应受到充分重视。

Population Age Distribution and Labor Income in China: Based on Cohort Analysis

Based on CHNS from 1991-2009,this paper applies a newly-developing approach of cohort analysis to quantitatively analyze the labor income pattern of China’s households from the view point of labor cohorts and age.The empirical results show that with respect to the change of household labor income,the age and generational cohort effects are both in a linear increasing trend,while the former is larger than the latter.For income inequality,the age effect demonstrates clear nonlinear characteristics and increases at a rapidly accelerating rate,while the cohort effect shows a steady rising trend and reaches a high level only in the cohorts born after 1960.Moreover,there is a significant difference in cohort and age effects between urban and rural areas.By comparison,urban households have more advantages in each aspect of income pattern.Therefore,a pension policy of improving intergenerational equity and a policy of coordinated rural-urban development are clearly needed.