Towards a more precise decision framework |
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Authors: | Robin Pope |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics and Management, University of New South Wales, ADFA, Northcott Drive, 2600, ACT, Australia
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Abstract: | The terms negative utility of gambling and risk aversion conflate three things:(i) |
Disutility from the mere act of taking a chance: i.e. negative effects that would not exist if there were no risk or uncertainty, effects which include serious business considerations such as the availability of loans — exemplified in von Neumann and Morgenstern's famous 1947 Appendix;
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Diminishing marginal utility of money: — exemplified in Bernoulli and Cramer's expected utility procedure; and
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A preference for safety: — exemplified in the rank dependent utility models of Allais, Lopes, Quiggin and Yaari.
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Factor (iii) has not been previously distinguished from (i). Factor (i) is regularly either confused with (ii) or ignored as elusive and unimportant. |
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Keywords: | curiosity wonder surprise fear (dis)utility of gambling diminishing marginal utility of money Keynes-Allais preference for safety components of risk aversion |
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