关注大城市低生育水平下的出生人口波动

根据上海户籍人口变动趋势的预测数据 ,具体分析出生人口波动引起的未来年出生人数“大起大落”的状况及其对产科床位、托儿所、幼儿园、小学、初中、高中乃至大学发展所带来的重大负面影响。建议各地计生部门应在稳定低生育水平的同时 ,密切关注未来大城市户籍人口出生数的波动态势 ,加强未来出生人口波动的预测和预报 ,对现行生育政策作些“微调” ,因地制宜地搞好未来出生人口“削峰补谷”的宏观调控 ,引导年轻育龄夫妇通过适当提前或推迟生育 ,减缓未来城市户籍出生人数的波动。

Paying Attention to the Birth Fluctuation Under the Low Fertility Level in Big Cities

As a result of the inertia effect of birth accumulation in the 1980s and the greatly increasing number of couples that can have the second child permitted by the policy during the first fifteen years in the 21st century, the number of births of registered residents per year in many big cities will double around 2010. Based on projection data on the birth fluctuation trend of Shanghai registered residents, the paper analyzes the wide|range waving of future births and its negative effect on the development of obstetrical beds, nursery , kindergarten, primary school, junior middle school, senior middle school and even university. It is suggested by the author that while stabilizing the low fertility, the local family planning departments should pay attention to the future birth fluctuation of registered residents in big cities, enhance the fluctuation projection and forecast, make some slight policy adjustments, carry out macroscopical measures suitable for local conditions to "cut the crest for filling up the trough",so that the child-bearing age of the young couple can be adjusted moderately to reduce the fluctuation.