环保决策路径选择研究综述——以不确定性和不可逆性为研究背景

西方环保领域的不确定性和不可逆性研究始于20世纪70年代。研究表明,不确定性普遍存在,并在确定时间内对竞争价格有重要影响。环境经济的不可逆性研究目前主要应用于不可逆后果的水利工程和温室气体效应研究。对不确定性和不可逆性二者关系的研究发现,不确定性必然导致环境价值保护决策的不可逆性,二者共同影响环保投资的预期成本和投资预期净现值,对环保政策产生负效应。根据已有的环保决策理论,结合不确定性和不可逆性二因素,环保决策路径的选择应该包括不确定性评估、环保决策指标设定、环境资产交易定价边界设计、环保决策选择和实施最佳时机等环节。

The Review of Research on Decision Path Choice of Environmental protection:With Uncertainty and Irreversible as Background

The western environmental protection research of uncertainty and irreversible began to research in the 1970s.Researchs show that uncertainty exists generally,having an important effect on price competition in the certain time.The irreversible research of environmental economic is mainly used in irreversible consequences of water conservancy projects and greenhouse gas effects.By studying the relationship between uncertainty and irreversible,we found that uncertainty will inevitably lead to protect the environment value of irreversible decision,the two jointly influence of the environmental protection investment expected cost and investment expected net present value,environmental policy to produce negative effects.On the basis of the existing environmental decision theory,combined with uncertainty and irreversible two factors,environmental decision-making path choice should be including assessment of uncertainty evaluation,the border design of environment of the transaction price,environmental protection decision select,and the best time of implement.