三论中国生育政策的系统模拟与比较选择——兼论"一代独生子女"政策"自着陆"

通过对全国和30个省区未来51种生育方案近百年模拟和对人口数量控制、年龄结构改善利弊得失的对比权衡可知,与2020年开始实行一代独生子女政策相比,尽快二孩方案在人口年龄结构上并没有显著优势,而它们的分年龄人口数和人口总量将会有较大差异,前者将稳定在一个适中的或较小的规模上,后者将稳定在一个庞大的规模上.研究生育政策,制定人口战略,既要考虑年龄结构不要过度老化,也要考虑年龄结构相对稳定;既要追求战术性的阶段性优势,更要追求战略性的久远性优势.结合中国已有的大规模人口和年龄结构优化的总体要求,可以选择在2020年实行大、中口径的一代独生子女政策.此项政策在公平性、可行性和可操作性上具有九大优点,可以平稳地实现我国计划生育的"自着陆".

Discussions on Systematic Simulation and Comparative Selections of China's Fertility Policy: One Generational One-Child Policy

The One Generational One-Child Policy in this paper is defined as "as long as the couple is the only child of his/her parents or one of the couple is the only child of his/her parents,the couple and their children could give two births".This paper simulates about one hundred year long trends of population development of 51 possibilities of fertility policy adopted for the whole country and stepwise balanced the advantages and disadvantages between the population control and the age structure of population both quantitatively and qualitatively.Our study shows that if The One Generational One-Child Policy continues to the year 2020,there will be no significant advantages on the improvement of the age structure of population compared to the Two-Child fertility policy.However,there will be big differences between the age-specific population numbers and the total population;the former would be stable at the moderate or little smaller size of the population than the later one.To study China's fertility policy and to establish the Population development strategy,we should consider how to avoid the over-aging population and the comparative stability of age structure as well.We should not only pursue the short-term tactical advantages,long-term strategic advantages are more important.Considering the fact that China has the largest population in the world and the needs to improve the age-structure of the population,better selections of fertility policies in China will be the larger and the moderate One Generational One-Child Policy adopted in 2020.There will be 9 advantages in fairness,feasibility,maneuverability if this fertility policy is adopted.More importantly,this policy will initiate a natural landing of the current family planning policy in the future.