行为规划理论刍议

决策分析中的选择理论是微观经济学理论赖以建构的基础。随着认知心理学和复杂科学的兴起,以主观预期效用理论为基础的经济学选择理论受到极大挑战。面对复杂且不确定的真实世界,传统的短视的选择理论已显得捉襟见肘,因此,应采用以计划为基础的行动取而代之。与制订单一决策的选择理论不同的是,以计划为基础的行动往往会考虑多个相关的决策以应对真实世界的复杂性。当决策是相关的、不可分割的、不可逆的以及不完全预见时,计划要比决策有效。鉴于此,有必要以系统性的方式探讨规划的行为,以建立行为规划理论。为了建构该理论,可以采用公理化、心理实验及计算机仿真等研究方法。只有对制订计划的逻辑及其效果有深刻了解,才能在复杂的环境中更好地实现目标并存活下来。

A Preliminary Treatise on Behavioral Planning Theory

The choice theory derived from decision analysis is the foundation for microeconomic theory.With the emergence of complexity science and cognitive psychology,the economic choice theory based on subjective expected utility (SEU) is being challenged.Faced with the complex,uncertain real world,the traditional myopic choice theory is insufficient and should be substituted with the theory of plan-based actions.Different from the choice theory that focuses on making single decisions independently,the theory of pl...