| 不确定性分析与风险分析在铁路投资项目中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李津京.不确定性分析与风险分析在铁路投资项目中的应用[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2010,9(2):28-31,57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李津京 |
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| 作者单位： | 铁道部利用外资与引进技术中心,北京,100086 |
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| 基金项目： | 亚洲开发银行ADB郑西客运专线可行性研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 不确定性分析与风险分析是铁路投资项目可行性研究的重要组成部分,了解项目所承受的各种风险,有助于提高投资决策的可靠性,提高投资项目的风险防范能力。基于概率分析的定量风险分析为铁路项目的可行性研究提供了一个非常有效的风险分析工具。本文在深入分析铁路投资项目风险因素的基础上,重点阐述了蒙特卡洛模拟的方法、步骤和在铁路项目中的应用。结果表明该方法在铁路项目投资决策中具有较高的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 不确定性分析 风险分析 客运专线 蒙特卡罗模拟 |
Application for Analysis of Uncertainty and Risk Method in Railway Investment Projects |
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| LI Jin-jing.Application for Analysis of Uncertainty and Risk Method in Railway Investment Projects[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University Social Sciences Edition,2010,9(2):28-31,57. |
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| Authors: | LI Jin-jing |
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| Institution: | LI Jin-jing(Foreign Capital and Technical Import Center,Ministry of Railways,Beijing 100086,China) |
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| Abstract: | The uncertainty analysis and risk analysis is an important component of feasibility study in railway investment.To understand various risk factors is very useful for improving the reliability of investment decision,as well as for improving the ability of the risk precaution.The quantitative analysis method based on probability provides an effective tool for feasibility study.Based on the analysis of risk factors in railway projects,this article emphasizes on the methods,procedures and application of Monte Carlo simulation.The author concludes that the Monte Carlo simulation has a high practical value in railway investment decision. |
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| Keywords: | uncertainty analysis risk analysis passenger dedicated railway line monte carlo simulation |
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