稳定低生育水平是缓解“四二一”担忧的一个安民告示

自我国实行计划生育政策以来．“四二一”家庭的问题受到人们的广泛关注。本文从人口学、社会学的角度分析认为“四二一”家庭不会成为我国家庭的主要人口结构形式．但如果生育率持续过低、过久则有可能引发倒金字塔型的社会人口结构。本文根据中国国家老龄委公布的“人口老龄化百年人口预测数据”。对我国高、中、低三种生育方案进行比较，发现把总和生育率稳定在1.8±0.1的中方案是比较适合我国21世纪人口发展的方案。避免生育率过低或过高既能控制我国人口总量增长过快。又能避免人口老龄化的程度和速度加剧．是控制人口与缓解人口老龄化的最优平衡点．

Stabilizing Low Fertility Level Is A Notice to Reassure the Public about the "4-2-1" Family

The issue of ＂4-2-1＂ family has attracted many people＇s attention since family planning policy has been implemented in China. The paper tries to prove that ＂4-2-1＂ family will not be China＇s dominating population structure from Demography and Sociology perspectives. However, the inverted pyramid form will probably become the age population structure of China on the condition of extremely low fertility for a long time. Based on the predicted data on population aging for a hundred of years by China＇s National Committee on Aging, the paper compares the high, middle and low fertility schemes, and finds that Total Fertility Rate （TFR） can be stabilized on 1.8±0.1 is a suitable scheme for China＇s population development in the 21st century. For considering both of the population aging and total population size, the fertility rate should be avoided too high or too low.