农村劳动力区域性流动特征及其对粮食供求格局的影响

文章在总结中国农村劳动力跨区域流动的表现特征及成因的基础上,分析了当前农村劳动力跨区域流动对粮食供求格局造成的影响,探讨了农村劳动力跨区域流动与粮食供求区域均衡之间的关系,并基于构建的中国粮食供求区域均衡模型实证模拟了未来农村劳动力跨区域流动对粮食供求格局可能造成的潜在影响。分析结果表明,农村劳动力跨区域流动会影响粮食主产区和粮食主销区的粮食供求均衡格局。实证模拟结果表明,随着中国区域经济发展差异的进一步凸现,经济发达地区尤其是作为粮食主销区的广东、浙江、上海、北京的粮食产需缺口会进一步加大,粮食供求区域失衡程度可能将会更加严重。

The Features of Rural Labor's Cross-Region Movement in China and its Impacts on Grain Supply and Demand

Based on summarizing the regional characteristics and causes of China's rural labor movement,this paper analyzes the impacts of this movement on grain supply and demand,and simulates the potential effect of rural labor movement on the pattern of grain supply and demand.The results show that the cross-region movement will affect the balance of food supply of the major grain producing areas and food demand of major grain consuming areas,and indicate that in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Beijing and other provin...