中国住房价格变化对居民消费的影响研究

住房价格持续快速上涨与居民消费需求增长缓慢是转型期中国经济社会发展面临的两个突出难题。微观分析表明,房价变化对消费的财富效应和担保效应对于不同群体是不一样的,并受到金融环境的约束。决定房价变化对全社会居民消费影响的关键因素包括人均住房资产量及其分布结构、住房价格变化的性质、金融制度安排和社会文化因素。以1999-2009年我国35个大中城市的面板数据进行的实证检验的研究发现:(1)房价上涨通过财富效应和担保效应对居民消费产生正向影响,通过收入效应产生负向影响,总效应方向具有不确定性;(2)1998年我国城镇住房制度改革以来房价的长期上涨所带来的房产升值对城镇居民消费具有促进作用,并呈现出效应大小与经济发达程度正相关的区域差异特征;(3)近5年我国房价的持续加速上涨强化了房产对消费的挤出效应,削弱了住房财富效应,在住房和金融市场相对落后的经济欠发达地区财富效应的减弱幅度更大。

The Impact of Fluctuations in Housing Prices on Consumption in China

Two problems facing China’s socio-economic development in the current transitional period are the rapidly rising housing prices and the slowdown of consumption growth.Our micro-analysis indicates that fluctuations in housing prices produce different wealth effect and collateral effect on different groups of consumers and these effects are subject to changes in financial environments.Key factors for the impact of fluctuations in housing prices on consumers as a whole include the amount of property per capita,its distributional structure,the nature of fluctuations in housing prices,arrangements by financial institutions,and other socio-cultural factors.This empirical study of the panel data over 1999-2009 from 35 cities in China reveals that(1) rises in housing prices have positive impacts on consumption in terms of both wealth effect and collateral effect but negative impacts in terms of income effect,resulting in uncertainty in total effects;(2) the steady increase in property value resulting from the housing reform since 1998 in cities and towns in China has a significant albeit weak promotional impact on consumption in cities and towns,and there exists a regional variation characterized by a positive correlation between development and impact;and(3) the continuously accelerating rises in housing prices in the past five years have significantly intensified the crowding-out effect of housing purchases on consumption but weakened the housing wealth effect,which is more serious in under-developed regions with immature housing and financial markets.