湖北农村居民持久收入与消费的协整分析

一般认为，持久收入是决定居民消费需求的基本因素。采用湖北省1978-2009年的农村居民持久收入与消费支出的年度统计数据，对湖北省农村居民的实际持久收入与消费进行协整分析。结果发现，湖北省农村居民的长期和短期消费弹性分别是0．857和0．728，二者之间存在着长期均衡和短期波动调整关系，持久收入是影响消费需求的决定性因素。在此基础上，提出相应政策建议，即大力提高农村居民的持久收入，从根本上激活农村消费市场和提高农村居民的消费水平。

Analysis on Cointegration of Farmers' Permanent Income and Consumption in Hubei Province

It is generally believed that permanent income is the basic factor to determine residents' consumption demand.Based on the annual statistical data of permanent income and consumption expenditure of rural residents in Hubei province from1978 to 2009,this paper analyzes the cointegration of actual permanent income and consumption of rural residents in Hubei province.The result shows that the long-term and short-term consumption elasticity of rural residents in Hubei province is 0.8571 and 0.727 8 respectively...