Women's preferences for children in Shifang County,Sichuan, China

Fertility preference being related to government policy in China, women generally understate their desired family size when questioned directly. A binomial probit model is, therefore, presented to estimate the probability that family-size preferences in Shifang County, Sichuan, China, are understated. The model provides estimates on the percentage of respondent understatement along with the number of children, women of different ages and social characteristics truly desire. Women's preferences for sons versus daughters are also examined. The study found that women desire on average 1/2 more children than that which they state. Understating was in greatest evidence among urban, educated, and younger women more sensitive to the government's 1-child policy. Preference for sons was found to be weaker than expected, yet strong nonetheless in rural areas among women desiring only 1 child. Sons are considered to cause more worry for parents in China due to an aggressive, risk-taking nature. Possible explanations for the decline of son preference include increasing familial costs for sons' betrothment and marriage, changing household structures, and increasing status of and job opportunities for women in Chinese society. In closing, the paper highlights that couples restrict marital fertility out of interest for national prosperity and the welfare of future generations, not personal preference for small families. Were government policy to relax, fertility would rise to preferred levels.