关注一孩政策后续效应：老年人晚年照料意愿及其影响因素分析

伴随着迅速的社会变迁，老年人晚年照料的被期待支持者与实际支持者之间出现了些许矛盾。基于CLASS 的调查数据，对老年人晚年照料负责的主体划分为四类，分别是正式支持、子代支持、非典型自我支持和协同支持。通过交叉分析和逻辑回归发现，虽然独生子女父母和非独生子女父母认为晚年照料由正式支持来负责的比例都不高，但是独生子女父母在该项的责任认定方面明显高于非独生子女父母。相比于非独生子女父母对于子代支持责任的依赖，独生子女父母对于照料责任的认定比较分散，呈现出正式支持、子代支持、非典型自我支持和协同支持平分秋色的特点。个人基本特征、经济状况因素、健康状况因素以及生活态度因素等变量均对老年人晚年照料责任意愿的认定影响显著。

The Subsequent Effect of Only-one Child Policy on the Intentions to Care for The Elderly and Its Influencing Factors

The expected care-giver to the elderly is different from the actual one since the radical social change. The care-giver to the elderly can be divided into four classes: social and governmental organizations , children , untypical-self-support and collaborative support. The analysis of the data from CLASS finds that both the parents of only-one child and non-one-child have relatively lower intention to be cared by social elderly support organizations , while the intention to stay in social elderly-support organizations among those parents with only one child is much higher than that among the parents with more children. Comparing with the the parents with more children who show much higher intention to depend their children in their elderly support , the parents with only-one-child seems equally to rely social organizations , child support , untypical-self-support and collaborative support. The variables such as personal characters, income, health and life-attitudes have significant influence on the idea who should shoulder the responsibility to take care of the elderly.