基于重复购买理论的一种新的客户选择方法

在今天越来越激烈的市场竞争之中，越来越多的公司已经从产品驱动的市场竞争策略转向客户驱动的市场竞争策略。并且随着计算机技术及数据挖掘方法的飞速发展，直接市场营销越来越受到重视。如何选择目标客户邮寄货单的问题也就越来越引起市场直销者的兴趣。计分模型及增益表选择方法和单群预测及选择方法是目前普遍采用的两种客户选择方法。在平稳市场的假设下，客户的购买模式服从著名的重复购买理论。基于这个理论，本文提出了一种新的客户选择方法，即两群预测及选择方法。应用实际的客户数据比较这三种不同的方法，结果表明新方法表现最好。

A New Customer Selection Method Based on Repeat Buying Theory

In today’s highly competitive marketplace, companies are shifting from a strictly product-driven marketing emphasis to a much more customer-driven emphasis, and how to select the target customer to mail an offer is of key interest to the direct marketers. Nowadays scoring model and gains chart selection method and one-group forecast and selection method are two commonly used methods. Under the stationary assumption, the customers’ purchasing pattern follows the well-known repeat buying theory. Based on this theory, this paper proposes a new customer selection method, i.e. two-group forecast and selection method. With a real customer dataset the performances of the three models are compared and the proposed model gives the best results.