中国经济增长路径中稳定状态推移的政策模拟 ——基于拉姆齐模型的实证研究

 本文基于拉姆齐模型的动态分析框架，借助于对其中若干重要参数的分析，对中国经济增长中的稳定状态及其推移问题进行了实证研究；并利用研究结论对中国经济增长的最优路径进行了模拟。初步结论为：①中国经济增长路径中存在稳定状态且随其参变量的变化而移动；②此稳定状态可以通过政策优化参数而向后推移；③可调控参数分别为消费跨期替代弹性、人均消费增长率、资本份额、技术进步速率、社会平均折旧率、人口自然增长率。

Policy Simulation of the Shift Transformation of the Stable State of China''''s Economic Growth Route: the Empirical Study Based on Ramsey''''s Model

The paper makes an empirical study of the stable state and the shift transformation in China's economic growth,by means of dynamic analytical framework of Ramsey's model and the analysis of its important parameters.Based upon this research,the paper further simulates the optimum economic growth route in China and researches such initial conclusions as follows:(1) China's economic growth route has the stable state which moves with the variable parameter's changes;(2)This stable state can be pushed backward through optimization of the policy parameters;(3)The modifiable parameters are "intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption","consumption growth rate per capita","capital share","technological progress","social average depreciation rate" and "natural growth rate of population".