A computer simulation of the epidemiology of the rice dwarf virus

Summary An epidemiological system model was developed to evaluate the role of factors which were responsible for the prevalence of rice dwarf virus (RDV) transmitted by the green rice leafhopper,Nephotettix cincticeps. Simulation tests were conducted by varying values of the following three parameters: the vector density, the coefficient of the efficiency of feeding acquisition of RDV of the vector, and that of efficiency of RDV transmission by the vector. The effect of each parameter was assessed in terms of changes in percentages of infected insects and of infected rice hills. Both the percentages of infected insects and of infected rice hills increased rapidly with increasing vector density within a range of low vector density. The former increased linearly when the acquisitive coefficient was increased. But the percentage of infected rice hills was affected to a lesser extent. The percentage of infected insects and that of infected rice hills increased exponentially with increasing values of the transmission coefficient. The results obtained from the simulation tests were discussed in relation to the ecological factors which caused the recent prevalence of RDV. A part of this research was supported by science research fund from the Ministry of Education.