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On Comparison of Stopping Times in Sequential Procedures for Exponential Families of Stochastic Processes
Authors:Michael Sø  rensen
Affiliation:University of Copenhagen
Abstract:For curved ( k + 1), k -exponential families of stochastic processes a natural and often studied sequential procedure is to stop observation when a linear combination of the coordinates of the canonical process crosses a prescribed level. For such procedures the model is, approximately or exactly, a non-curved exponential family. Subfamilies of these stopping rules defined by having the same Fisher (expected) information are considered. Within a subfamily the Bartlett correction for a point hypothesis is also constant. Methods for comparing the durations of the sampling periods for the stopping rules in such a subfamily are discussed. It turns out that some stopping times tend to be smaller than others. For exponential families of diffusions and of counting processes the probability that one such stopping time is smaller than another can be given explicity. More generally, an Edgeworth expansion of this probability is given
Keywords:birth-and-death processes    counting processes    diffusion-type processes    Edgeworth expansion    Fisher information    Levy process    likelihood theory    stopping time
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