中国能源消费静态依赖与动态发展——基于30个省市数据综列协整分析

本文以我国30个省市为横截单元、以1995-2005年时序数据组成综列数据,建立我国省市能源消费的综列协整模型,通过综列单位根和综列协整检验,结果表明,我国各省市的能源消费与经济增长和能源效率之间存在长期均衡。基于这一结论,揭示各省市能源消费静态依赖与动态发展特征,并给出政策建议。

Static Reliance and Dynamic Development of China's Energy Consumption: Based on Panel Co-integration Analysis to the Data of 30 Provinces and Cities

Taking 30 provinces and cities as a unit, this paper constructs the panel energy consumption model and defines the panel data for energy consumption and growth from 1995 to 2005. By panel unit root and co-integration test, it concludes that there exists long-term balance between energy consumption and economic growth and energy efficiency. Based on this conclusion, the static reliance and dynamic development of the energy consumption of various provinces are revealed and policies and suggestions are made.