服务贸易限制、制度质量与国家经济增长

服务贸易作为2008年全球金融危机后拉动世界贸易增长的新引擎,对一国经济增长有着重要影响。在梳理相关理论和文献的基础上,基于2004—2017年80个国家的跨国面板数据,实证分析了服务贸易限制对经济增长的影响,并进一步探究了制度质量的调节作用。研究发现,服务贸易限制会阻碍经济增长,高质量的政治制度和经济制度能够有效缓解其阻碍作用。从国别异质性角度来看,服务贸易限制对不同收入水平国家经济增长的影响存在差异,其中对高收入国家经济增长的消极影响最大,其次是中高等收入国家和中低等收入国家,最后是低收入国家;政治制度质量和经济制度质量对不同收入水平的国家均具有正向调节作用。从行业异质性视角来看,专业服务贸易限制对经济增长的消极影响最大,其次是运输服务和通信服务,最后是金融服务;无论是政治制度质量还是经济制度质量对不同行业均具有正向调节作用。从服务贸易供应模式异质性角度来看,跨境交付模式的限制对经济增长的消极影响大于商业存在及自然人流动模式,且制度质量具有弱化的调节作用。研究结果表明,放宽服务贸易限制,完善制度建设,推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化,均有助于促进国家经济增长。

Service Trade Restriction, Institutional Quality and National Economic Growth

After the financial crisis,as a new engine to drive the growth of world trade,service trade has an important impact on the national economic growth.On the basis of reviewing relevant theories and literature,and based on the transnational panel data of 80 countries during the years from 2004 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of service trade restrictions on national economic growth,and further explores the regulatory role of national institutional quality.The research finds that service trade restrictions would hinder the economic growth,and the high-quality political and economic institutions could alleviate effectively the hindrance.From the perspective of national heterogeneity,service trade restrictions have different effects on economic growth in countries of different income levels,with the biggest negative impact on the economic growth in high-income countries,less impact in the middle-and-high-income countries and middle-and-low-income countries,and the least impact in low-income countries.The political institution quality and the economic institution quality have a positive regulatory role in countries of different income levels.From the perspective of industry heterogeneity,the professional service has the biggest negative impact of service trade restrictions on the economic growth,then the transportation services and communication services,and finally the financial services.Both political institution quality and economic institution quality have the positive regulatory role for different industries.From the perspective of heterogeneity of service trade supply mode,the cross-border delivery mode restriction has a more negative impact on economic growth than commercial existence and natural person flow mode,and the institutional quality has a weakening regulating effect.The research results show that relaxing the service trade restrictions,improving the quality of institutions,and promoting the modernization of the country's governance system and governance capacity will help boost the economic growth.