西方人口预报评价动态

在进一步界定人口预报概念的基础上,简要介绍了几种常用人口预测方法,重点介绍了近10年西方学者针对发达国家和地区人口预报所进行的评价研究动态,包括：单个预报方法评价、两个预报方法之间的比较评价、衡量预报误差大小的统计指标设计评价。人口预测是当前人口学研究中最活跃的领域之一,通过对人口预报结果的评价,可以了解预报方法的优劣,并提出改进和修正方案。

Western Researches on Evaluating of Demographic Forecast

After making sense of the demographic forecast,and introducing some common methods involved,the paper elaborates the western scholars' evaluation researches made in the past decade on demographic forecast of the developed countries and regions.The evaluations are mainly made on the single forecast method,and by comparisons between two forecast methods,and through statistical parameter designed to measure forecasting errors.Demographic projection is one of most active fields in the recent demography;its eval...