上海市生育意愿30年的演变历程

通过对1980年初以来上海开展的数次生育意愿调查结果的回顾与梳理,展现了过去30年上海人口生育意愿(主要是意愿子女数和意愿子女性别)的演变历程:意愿子女数呈不断减少趋势;不同群体间生育意愿数虽存在差异,但都低于2个孩子。同时,总和生育率、孩次率等多项指标显示,上海人口的实际生育已长期处于很低水平。文中历次调查的意愿生育子女数与相应年份总和生育率的纵向比较可表明,在低生育水平社会,人们的实际生育水平一般低于所报告的意愿生育水平。

The Transition of Fertility Desire in Shanghai in the Past 30 Year

The paper reviews the surveys on childbearing desire in Shanghai since early 1980s, describes and an- alyzes the city＇s transition of fertility desire in the past 30 years, with a focus on the desired number and sex of children. The findings show that the desired number of children has been decreasing; though there are differ- ences in fertility desire among different groups, in general, the level of desired number of children of all the groups is far below 2. At the same time, total fertility rate, parity fertility rate and many other indicators all show that fertility level of the Shanghai population has been at a very low level for quite long period. The comparison between the desired number of children based on those surveys and total fertility rate in the corresponding years shows it consistent with the pattern of the actual fertility level lower than fertility desire people expressed in the survey as observed in many low fertility level societies.