生育进度效应调整指标研究的新进展

随着经济和社会的不断发展,生育推迟现象在全世界范围内日益普遍。由于生育推迟所产生的进度效应会对生育水平造成影响,因此,如何测度生育进度效应便成了人口学界研究的重要内容。自Bongaarts和Feeney的去进度效应总和生育率提出以来,各种新的改进方法与指标不断出现。本文对生育进度效应调整指标的新进展及具体指标进行梳理与比较。从时期角度出发,主要包括方差效应调整后的TFR、PATFR*、调整后的TFRSUV_N和ITFR四种指标;从队列角度出发,主要包括TFRp*、TFR?和ACF三种指标,这些指标有各自的优缺点。研究发现:首先,由于不同去进度效应改进指标的假设、适用条件、研究角度、改进方向都不同,很难有一套数据同时适用于多种去进度方法,因此,生育进度效应的诸多改进指标并没有哪个指标“更好”,只有“更合适”;其次,绝对的去进度效应只能停留在理论层面,而实际上却很难做到,种种去进度方法都只是一种“相对的去”,而不是“绝对的去”。过去我们所熟悉的进度效应是生育推迟,而目前世界范围内生育推迟速度开始逐渐放缓,未来我们甚至不能排除生育推迟在某个时期或某些区域会发生逆转,届时可能会出现与目前影响方向相反的进度效应,这可能是下一步关于生育进度效应研究应该注意的新方向。

New Progress of the Study on the Adjustment Indicators of Fertility Tempo Effect

With the continuous development of economy and society,the phenomenon of delayed fertility is becoming more and more common all over the world.As the tempo effect produced by delayed fertility will affect the fertility level,how to measure the tempo effect of fertility has become an important content of de?mographic research.Since Bongaarts and Feeney put forward the concept of tempo-adjusted total fertility rate(TFR),various new improved methods and indicators have been emerging.The purpose of this paper is to briefly introduce the new progress of the adjustment indicators of fertility tempo effect,and to sort out and compare the specific indicators.From the perspective of period level,this paper mainly introduces four indicators:Adjusted TFR with Variance Effects,PATFR*,Adjusted TFRSUV_N and ITFR;From the perspec?tive of cohort level,this paper mainly introduces three indicators:TFRp*,TFR?and ACF.Through compre?hensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these indicators,the below results were obtained.First of all,because of the different hypothesis,applicable conditions,research view and improvement direction of the tempo-adjusted indicators,it is difficult to have a set of data applicable to a variety of tempo-adjusted methods simultaneously.Therefore,among many tempo-adjusted indicators of the fertility tempo effect,we can only find a“more appropriate”one rather than a“better”one.Secondly,the absolute tempo-adjusting effect can only stay at the theoretical level and is difficult to be achieved in practice.All kinds of tempo-adjusted methods are“relative”rather than“absolute”.At the last part of the article,we proposed that the known tempo effect is delayed fertility in the past,but at present,the speed of delayed fertility around the world has gradually slowed down.In the future,we can’t even rule out the reversal of delayed fertility in a certain period and some regions,then a tempo effect has the opposite impact direction may emerge.This may be a new direction that should be paid attention to in the next step of fertility tempo research.