婚前同居对初婚年龄的影响研究 ——基于Heckman二阶段模型的分析

在现代社会中,初婚年龄持续攀升,婚前同居现象越来越多地出现。那么婚前同居与初婚年龄之间有没有关系?本文基于婚前同居对离婚影响的选择假说与经历假说进一步探讨两种假说与初婚年龄之间的关系。选择假说认为同居者自身特征促使他们追求思想解放,消极地影响着婚姻稳定性,因此与其同居伴侣之间并不想建立一个长期的契约。由此推测这些积极影响同居的特征因素会给结婚带来消极影响,婚前同居就会推延初婚年龄;经历假说认为共同生活的经历将会改变同居者对婚姻的认识,他们不再强烈地致力于追求婚姻的身份。他们将会接受婚前同居这种暂时性的本质。很多夫妇认为同居提供了一个婚姻的替代品,结婚的欲望由此下降。因此这也将推延初婚年龄。除两个假说外,同居者想要通过同居搜集更多对方的信息,这种想要更多地了解对方的想法也将推延初婚年龄。在理论分析的基础上,本文基于2010年CFPS抽样调查数据,采用Heckman二阶段模型纠正婚前同居的自选择性带来的偏误并检验婚前同居推延初婚年龄的研究假设。研究结果发现婚前同居使女性与男性的初婚年龄分别推迟了0.415岁与0.868岁。在控制婚前同居的自选择性后,婚前同居对女性与男性初婚年龄的影响仍然很大且显著,初婚年龄分别推迟了0.431岁与0.890岁,证明婚前同居将会提高初婚年龄。这进一步明晰了婚前同居在我国家庭形成过程中的作用。婚前同居对初婚年龄的推延作用无疑为我国全面二孩政策下出生人口数量增长带来消极影响。

The Influence of Premarital Cohabitation on the Age of First Marriage——Based on the Heckman Two-Stage Model

In modern society,the age of first marriage continues to rise,and the phenomenon of premarital cohabitation appears more and more. Is there any relationship between premarital cohabitation and age of first marriage? This paper adopts choice hypothesis and the experience hypothesis which depict the effects of premarital cohabitation on divorce and further discusses the relationship between the two hypothesis and the age of first marriage. The choice hypothesis believes that the characteristics of the cohabitants themselves urge them to pursue emancipation of the mind and negatively affect the stability of marriage. Therefore,he does not want to establish a long-term contract with his cohabiting partner. It is speculated that these positive factors affecting cohabitation will have a negative impact on marriage,so that premarital cohabitation will delay the age of first marriage. The experience hypothesis believes the experience of living together will change the cohabitants’ understanding of marriage,making them no longer strongly committed to the pursuit of marriage. They will accept the temporary nature of premarital cohabitation. Many couples believe that cohabitation provides a substitute for marriage,and the desire to marry declines. So this will also delay the age of first marriage. In addition to the two hypotheses,cohabitants want to collect more information from each other through cohabitation,but wanting to know more about each other’s ideas will also delay the first marriage and proposes that the assumption of premarital cohabitation will postpone the age of first marriage. Based on the theory analysis,the study uses 2010 CFPS sampling survey data to test the influence of premarital cohabitation on the age of first marriage after using the heckman two-stage model to correct the bias caused by the self-selection of premarital cohabitation. The study found that premarital cohabitation delayed the age of first marriage of women and men by 0.415 years and 0.868 years respectively.After controlling the choice of premarital cohabitation,the influence of premarital cohabitation on the age of first marriage of women and men was still great,and the age of first marriage was delayed by 0.431 years and 0.890 years respectively. This study proves that premarital cohabitation will increase the age of first marriage. It further clarifies the role of premarital cohabitation in the formation of family. The effect of premarital cohabitation on the age of first marriage has undoubtedly had a negative impact on the growth of the number of births under the comprehensive two-child policy.