论水循环与气候变化应对机制

《京都议定书》确定了气候变化应对的“减排”与“增汇”二元应对机制。近年来发达国家更多地强调减排机制,而增汇机制有减弱的趋势。人类既要通过减排温室气体以避免气候变化的加剧,也要重视自然力碳循环和水循环对气候变化的影响。“泛温室气体成因”的趋势对气候变化问题的认知和对策路径提出了挑战。气候变化利益格局取决于直接经济损益、国际经济格局和治理多向性受益格局。当今气候变化国际合作呈现出“同而不和”的非良性态势,这是造成应对机制争议和困境的主要原因。理想状态应当是“和而不同”,即在承认各国在气候变化成因、利益、作用等方面差异的前提下加强国际分工与合作,实现的路径是以《联合国气候变化框架公约》为主导,在重视减排的同时,加强增汇机制的作用,并且应增加水循环改善这一新的机制要素,形成减排-增汇-治水的三元应对机制。减排的主要对象依然是发达国家,对于中国等碳汇潜力巨大、水循环影响力巨大的国家,则要通过生态保护建设增加碳汇,并加强水利建设改善水循环,加强和培育自然力碳循环和水循环对温室效应的修复功能。

On Water Cycle and Response Mechanisms of Climate Change

Kyoto Protocol has established two major mechanisms to cope with climate change including carbon emission abatement and carbon sink increase. Recently, the developed countries place more emphasis on the mechanism of emission abatement and place less emphasis on the mechanism of sink enhancement. Man not only has to avoid aggravating climate change, but also has to attach importance to the influence of natural carbon cycle and water cycle on climate change. The understanding of the causes of universal greenh...