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Structural instability and alternative development scenarios
Authors:Laurent L Cellarier  Richard H Day
Institution:(1) Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2W1;(2) Department of Economics, University of Southern California (USC), Los Angeles, CA 90089-0253, USA
Abstract:Many past societies grew and flourished for several generations, and some for many centuries, prior to experiencing calamities that lowered wealth and/or productivity below some “critical levels.” In some cases, a collapse occurred; in others, the population reductions caused by emigration, plague, or warfare not only extended societies’ survival but induced a growth resurgence. These varied historical development scenarios are captured using a comparative dynamic analysis of structurally unstable variations of the Solow–Swan growth model. These results would seem to be relevant for understanding possibilities in the contemporary world.
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