中国农民工汇款的影响因素分析——一个区间回归模型的应用

 摘　　要:中国农村劳动力的大规模转移，为劳动力输出地带来了大量汇款，这些汇款甚至超过了当地的财政收入。在本文中，我们利用最近所做的农民工汇款问卷调查数据来分析影响农民工汇款的因素。因为关于汇款量的调查数据处于不同的区间而不是具体的数值，所以我们利用区间回归模型来对此进行分析。研究结果表明，农民工的打工收入、农村老家的非汇款收入、农村老家的耕地数量以及农民工的年龄对汇款量具有显著的正向影响，而农民工的转移成本、是否全家一起外出打工、是否有失业经历以及是否接受过大学教育对汇款量具有显著的负向影响 。

An Analysis of Determinants of Remittances of China''''s Rural Migrants——Application of Interval Regression Model

The large-scale rural-to-urban migration in China has brought a large amount of remittances back to rural areas,which even exceeds local government revenues in some regions.Using the recently collected survey data,we explore the determinants of the remittances of China's rural migrants.Because the survey data of remittances is interval-coded rather than numerical,interval regression model can serve as an appropriate framework for our analysis.The results show that rural migrants' earnings,their age,non-remittance income of their families and land have positive impacts on the quantity of remittance while their migration cost,whether have unemployment experience,migrate with the whole family and have college diploma or above have negative effects on the level of remittance.