社会保障、公共教育支出对居民收入的门槛效应研究

社会保障和公共教育是增进居民福祉的有效途径,同时也是调节收入分配的重要工具。本文运用面板线性模型和面板门槛模型实证检验了二者对居民收入的影响效应。研究发现：首先,从线性关系来看,社会保障、公共教育支出对居民收入存在挤入效应,且公共教育支出对居民收入的影响存在明显区域性差异。其中,东部地区为正向促进作用,中部和西部地区为负向抑制作用。其次,社会保障与公共教育支出之间存在相互替代关系,这在一定程度上抑制了公共教育支出对居民收入的负向影响。最后,从非线性关系来看,社会保障和公共教育支出对居民收入的影响显著存在基于城镇化水平的“门槛效应”,随着城镇化水平提高,二者对居民的增收效应也会有所提升。其政策涵义在于深化城乡社会保障和公共教育制度改革,实行差异化公共财政调控政策,发挥二者对居民收入的再分配功能。

A Study of the Threshold Effect of Social Security and Public Education Expenditure on Residents' Income

Social security and public education is not only effective in improvingpublic welfare, but also important in adjusting income distribution. This paper is designed to testthe impact of these two factors on household income with thehelp of the panel linear model and panel threshold model. The results have the following indications. First of all, judging from the linear relationship, social security and public education expenditure have crowding-in effect on residents'' income, and there are obvious regional differences in the impacts of public education expenditure on the resident''s income. Among them, the impact in the eastern region is positive, while that in the central and western regions has negative influence.Secondly, there is an alternative relationship between social security and public education expenditure, which, to some extent, inhibits the negative impact of public education expenditure on resident''s income. Finally, viewing from the non-linear relationship, the impacts of social security and public education expenditure on residents'' income are mostly embodied inthe "threshold effect" closely connected with the level of urbanization. With the deepening of urbanization, the income effect of these two factors will be improved.Its policy implication is to deepen the reform of the urban and rural social security system and public education system, and implement differential public fiscal regulation policy, giving full play to these two factors roles in redistribution of residents'' income.