折旧率不同对资本存量估算的影响

资本存量是宏观经济分析与统计研究的重要指标,近年来学者普遍认为折旧率的大小直接影响了资本存量的估算结果。李宾首次对此展开系统研究,但由于李宾前后两个时间段采用的折旧率不一致,因此估算结果存在偏差。在对资本存量估算指标进行分析的基础上,重新估算了中国1978—2014年的资本存量,研究了折旧率对资本存量估算的影响。发现折旧率相差1个百分点,25年之后资本存量大约相差5.4个百分点,5%折旧率与10%折旧率的估算结果相差20%,以往的学者可能高估了折旧率对资本存量估算的影响。

How will Different Depreciation Rates Affect the Estimation of China's Capital Stock

T he estimation of capital stock is very important to macroeconomic and statistical research . Previous literature show s that different depreciation rates affect the estimation of China's capital stock greatly .Libin's work is systematical ,but he used different depreciation rates for two different periods ,so his research results may not be reliable .We analyze different data items and re‐estimate the capital stock of China between 1978 and 2014 then find that the difference of capital stock under different depreciation rates is not very significant ,if depreciation rates are 1% larger ,capital stocks will be 5 .4% smaller after 25 years ,the estimation difference based on 5% and 10% depreciation rates is 20% .Our work shows that previous literature may over‐estimate the effect of depreciation rates on capital stock .