中国城镇化对水足迹效益影响的实证研究——基于城市空间动态面板数据

采用人均水足迹、水足迹强度、水足迹土地密度和水足迹废弃率衡量水足迹效益,基于1998-2014年城市空间动态面板数据,运用空间纠正系统GMM法实证发现:城镇化与水足迹效益存在空间自相关,水足迹效益存在空间溢出效应;城镇化显著提高了中国人均水足迹、水足迹土地密度和水足迹废弃率,但未显著降低中国水足迹强度。分区域与分城市类型看,城镇化显著提高了三大地区和三类城市人均水足迹和水足迹土地密度,其中东部地区和地级以上城市两者增幅最大;城镇化未显著降低中西部地区、地级市和县级市的水足迹强度,但显著降低了东部地区和地级以上城市水足迹强度;城镇化显著提高了中西部地区、地级市和县级市的水足迹废弃率,但对东部地区水足迹废弃率并未产生显著影响,也未显著降低地级以上城市水足迹废弃率。据此,中国必须走新型城镇化道路,提高水足迹效益,缓解城镇化进程中水资源供需矛盾。

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Urbanization on Water Footprint Benefitin China：Based on City Spatial Dynamic Panel Data

Using per capita water footprint,water footprint intensity,water footprint land density and water footprint waste ratemeasure water footprintbenefit,based on city spatial dynamic panel data of 1998-2014,the paper uses the spatial correction system GMM found that urbanizationand water footprintbenefit have spatial autocorrelation, there is spatial spillover effect of water footprint benefit,urbanization has increased the per capita water footprint, water footprint land density and water footprint waste rate of China,thereis not significant for reducing effect of urbanization on water footprint intensity in China.From regions and the type of city,urbanization has significantly increasedpercapitawaterfootprintandwaterfootprintlanddensityofthreeregionsandthreetypesofcities,thereare the largest increases for themin Easternregion and cities at prefecture level and above;thereis not significant for reducing effect of urbanization on water footprint intensity in Midwest regions,prefecture level city and county-level city,but urbanization has significantly reduced the water footprint intensity in easternregion and cities at prefecture level and above;urbanization has significantly increased their water footprint waste rate inmid-west regions,prefecture level city and county-level city,ithas not a significant impact on the water footprint waste rate in easternregion, urbanization has not significantly reduce water footprint waste rate of cities at prefecture level and above.Accordingly, wemusttakeanewroadofurbanizationtoimprovethewaterfootprintbenefitandeasethecontradictionbetween supplyanddemandofwaterresourcesintheprocessofurbanization.