中国城镇化的地域非均衡及其动态演进——来自基尼系数及核密度估计的经验证据

基于中国1995-2013年省域数据,采用基尼系数及其分解、核密度估计方法,从人口和土地城镇化入手,系统分析了中国城镇化的地域非均衡及其动态演化规律。结果发现,1.中国人口和土地城镇化分布均呈现出由东往西逐渐降低的规律,城镇化非均衡主要体现在土地城镇化,而人口城镇化则未出现明显分异。2.全国尺度人口城镇化基尼系数随时间不断下降,城镇化非均衡逐渐减小;土地城镇化基尼系数则呈倒"U"型,城镇化非均衡先增后减。3.东中西三大区域内人口城镇化基尼系数均呈直线下降,区域间非均衡东部最大,西部次之,中部最小;土地城镇化非均衡则是东部大于中部和西部,但近年来西部已超过东部。4.人口城镇化非均衡在1995-2001年间主要来自地区间重叠,而后2002-2013年主要由地区间差异驱动;土地城镇化非均衡则主要来源于地区间差异。5.核密度估计显示人口城镇化增速较快,波动较小,而土地城镇化则极化趋势明显,波动较大。新型城镇化的协调推进宜从人口和土地城镇化两方面着手,特别要注意土地城镇化的失衡发展问题。

Regional Disequilibrium and Dynamic Evolution of China's Urbanization: Evidence from the Gini Coefficient and Kernel Density Estimation

Applying both Gini coefficient and its subgroup decomposition and kernel density estimation, this paper examines regional disequilibrium and dynamic evolution of population and land urbanization based on provincial data from 1995 to 2013 in China.The results found that: 1.Both the population and land urbanization of China showed decreased gradually from east to west, the urbanization-imbalance is mainly reflected in land urbanization, but population urbanization has no obvious differentiation.2.From the nationwide-scale of population urbanization view, the Gini coefficient is declining, also urbanization non-balanced is decreasing.Moreover, the Gini coefficient of land urbanization is found an inverted U-shape, the urbanization inequality increased firstly and then decreased.3.The Gini coefficient of population urbanization decreased within eastern, middle and western belt, among the interregional, the sort of regional-imbalance is east, west, and middle.But for the non-balanced of land urbanization, the eastern belt is greater than central and western, yet the western belt has exceeded the eastern belt in recent years.4.Disequilibrium of population urbanization is mainly from transvariation among groups in 1995-2001, whereas in 2002-2013 is driven by interregional disparity, also interregional is the main source of land urbanization disequilibrium.5.Kernel density estimation results reveal that the growth of population urbanization is faster with less volatile, but land urbanization shows a trend of polarization with obvious fluctuations.The coordinated development of urbanization in China should be started with population and land urbanization separately, especially, the government needs to deal with the unbalanced development of regional land urbanization well.