中国油脂油料进口替代关系的计量经济研究

利用1996—2014年中国油脂油料进口数据,运用AIDS模型和CMS模型,分别分析不同时期中国油脂油料的进口替代关系以及该替代关系对中国油脂油料进口增长的影响程度。结果表明:进口油脂油料中,大豆与大豆油进口之间存在相互替代关系,然而大豆进口对大豆油进口的替代作用更为显著;进口植物油中,菜籽油与大豆油进口在各进口植物油之间存在最为显著的替代关系;棕榈油进口对大豆油与菜籽油进口的替代作用日益明显。油脂油料进口替代作用对中国油脂油料进口增长的影响程度日益显著,有利于减少油脂油料的进口开支、优化进口结构。

Econometric Research on Import Substitution Relationship Between Oils and Oilseeds in China

This paper analyzed import substitution relationship between oils and oilseeds, and the degrees to which the substitution relationship affects oils and oilseeds import growth in different period in China, using the AIDS model and the CMS model with the import data of oils and oilseeds from 1996 to 2014 in China.The results showed that between import oils and oilseeds, there is a substitution relationship between soybean and soybean oil, and the import substitution effect of soybean imports to soybean oil is more significant.Between import vegetable oils, the substitution relationship between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is the most significant;there is an increasingly import substitution effect of palm oil to soybean oil and rapeseed oil.The influence degree of import substitution effect of oils and oilseeds to increasing import is significantly, and the substitution effect could reduce oils and oilseeds import costs and optimize the structure of import.