中国经济发展的水泥消费量及地域需求模型研究

基于1980-2005年31个省区的时空数据,分析了中国水泥消费量与经济发展的关系及地域需求模型,结果发现：25年来中国水泥消费量随着人口和人均GDP的增长而呈同步增长态势,水泥消费总量是人口总量与人均GDP及固定资产投资的Cobb-Douglas函数,水泥消费量与固定资产投资总额呈双对数关系;依据1996年、2000年、2005年三个时段截面数据的分析,发现31个省区水泥消费量与人口总量、人均GDP（或人均固定资产投资额）具有Cobb-Douglas函数双因素驱动特征,给出了3个时段的模拟结果,并进行了有关弹性特征的分析,为中国水泥生产和地区布局规划提供了科学依据。

Research on the Regional Distributioon and Total Consumption Model of the Cement in China

Based on the time-space data of the 31 provinces in mainland China from 1980 to 2005,it is analyzed that the relationship between the cement consumption and economic development and its regional demand model,the results is follow: with the growth of population and per capita production,it is a synchronized growth that the cement consumption with economic growth,the relation is a Cobb-Douglas' function that cement consumption with the growth of population and per capita product in China,it is a double logarithmic relationship that the cement consumption with fixed assets input.Using the section data of 31 provinces in 1996,2000 and 2005,the regional demand model is found that the cement consumption of 31 provinces in mainland China,the relationship of cement consumption with the population and per capita GDP(or fixed assets input).In this paper,the simulation results of three period is gave out,and the flexibility of two factors is analysis.This work is provided a scientific basis reference for the cement production and regional arrangement and planning in China.