新农保对农村劳动力就业选择的影响

基于2009—2017年全国农村固定观察点数据，运用条件混合回归模型实证分析了新农保对农村劳动力就业选择的影响。研究表明，新农保会显著提升农户非农就业和创业的概率，降低农业规模经营的概率。从家庭资源禀赋来看，新农保显著提升了精英家庭和互联网接入家庭农户创业的概率，对非精英家庭和未接入互联网家庭农户影响并不显著。进一步讨论发现，信贷获得和风险态度是影响新农保就业效应的两个重要因素，信贷获得显著强化了新农保的创业效应，而风险态度在新农保促进农户非农就业和创业中的作用并不一致。因此，应充分发挥新农保制度对农村经济社会的“减震器”功能，但也要重视部分群体在就业创业中的“堵点”和“焦点”问题。

Influence of New Rural Pension Insurance on Rural Labor Employment Choice

Based on national rural fixed point panel data during 2009-2017,using conditional mixed process model to empirical analyze the impact of new rural pension insurance on the employment choice of rural labor force.The research shows that the new rural pension insurance will significantly increase the probability of farmers'' non-agricultural employment and entrepreneurship,reduce the probability of agricultural scale operation.From the perspective of family resource endowments,the new rural pension insurance has significantly increased the probability of entrepreneurship of elite families and Internet access families,while the impact on non-elite families and non-Internet access families is not significant.Further discussion found credit access and risk attitude are two important factors affecting the employment effect of the new rural pension insurance.Credit access significantly strengthens the entrepreneurial effect of the new rural pension insurance,while the role of risk attitude in promoting non-agricultural employment and entrepreneurship of farmers is not consistent.Thus,giving full play to the new rural pension insurance system for rural society''s ''shock absorber'' function,and pay attention to the ''blocking points'' and ''focusing problems'' in the employment and entrepreneurship.