人民币升值压力与中国的对策

人民币名义汇率的升值趋势 ,从 1994年汇率并轨时即确立。作者在 1994年就预测人民币“稳中有升”的趋势可以延续到 2 0世纪末。现在可以把预测再延长 5— 8年 ,在此期间人民币将受到越来越大的升值压力。国家可以通过扩大汇率浮动范围 ,放松外汇管制 ,调整国内经济政策 ,一方面消化升值压力 ,一方面逐步实现“浮动升值”。文章通过历史和理论分析 ,论证了人民币升值期的根据和影响 ,并且进一步提出了以汇率为中心调整国内外经济不平衡的政策建议

Appreciation Pressure of RMB v. s. China's Countermeasures

Appreciation trend of RMB nominal rate began to occur wh en China decide d to combine two exchange rate systems into unique one in 1994. That year, I pre dicted that the trend of RMB rate maintaining the steadiness while appreciation c ould go into the end of the 20th century. At present time, I would like to prolo ng my prediction of such a trend for another coming 5 to 8 years. During this pe riod of time RMB will stand more and more challenging pressure of appreciation. T he country can remove the pressure of appreciation by taking some measures, such as broadening the floating scope of exchange rate, loosening administrative cont rol over foreign currency and adjusting domestic economic policies. Based on the historical, theoretical analysis, the paper proves the evidence and influence o f RMB during the period of appreciation, and further more proposes the counterme a sure of adjusting economic unbalance at home and abroad by taking exchange rate as the center.