Cross-Section Studies As Predictors of Trends in Birth Rates: A Note on Ekanem’s Results

Ekanem has shown that variations in socioeconomic development are associated with differences in birth rates. However, he has made no attempt to determine if his regression equations can be used to predict trends in fertility. This note shows that, using Ekanem’s data, the factors he found most significant in explaining differences in fertility playa minor role over time whereas per capita income, which he found to be relatively insignificant in explaining variations cross-sectionally, has a statistically significant impact over time .