跨境贸易人民币结算收付变化的影响因素分析

人民币汇率预期变化、套利活动及企业的议价权高低是影响跨境贸易人民币结算收付变化的主要因素。2011年以来,跨境贸易人民币结算收付渐趋平衡,但这种趋势能否持续,受制于币值的稳定性程度、中国外贸企业的议价权高低以及进、出口人民币结算发展的平衡性。短期内,受人民币贬值预期的影响,收付比将会继续保持缩小趋势,甚至再次出现收入略大于支出的现象;但从中长期来看,人民币汇率稳中有升的可能性较大,同时,进口人民币结算的发展潜力相对强于出口,故而维持支出略大于收入的可能性较大。

The Research of Affecting Factors for RMB Settlement in Cross-border Commerce

The main factors affecting RMB settlement in cross-border commerce are the expected change of RMB exchange rate,arbitrage trade and the bargaining ability of Chinese foreign trade enterprises.Since 2011,RMB receipt and payment in cross-border commerce have become balanced,but the trend is affected by the following factors: the stability of the exchange rate of RMB,the bargaining ability of Chinese foreign trade enterprises,and the balance of RMB settlement development between import and export.In the short term,due to the impact of the devaluation of RMB,the gap between receipt and payment will keep on narrowing;even the exchange revenue may be slightly larger than the disbursement again.However,in the long term,the major probability is RMB exchange rate will rise up again,and import development potential is stronger than that of export,therefore,the expenditure is larger than the income slightly will be maintained over an extended period.