我国粮食供求与价格走势(1980~2007)——粮价波动、宏观稳定及粮食安全问题探讨

本文在观察改革开放时期我国粮食经济基本数据基础上,探讨我国未来粮价短期走势和长期粮食安全问题。得益于市场化取向制度改革和现代农业科技进步,以绝对短缺和匮乏为特征的传统粮食安全问题早已发生实质性改变。受油价上涨刺激生物能源需求、国际小麦价格上涨以及国内粮食供求周期变动等因素影响,我国粮价走势在短中期存在相当的不确定性。如果我国货币供应与总需求增长不至失控,油价上涨导致粮价全面猛涨并把我国通胀率拉高到两位数的可能性比较小。

The Supply of and the Demand for Grains in China, and the Trend of Prices (1980~2007)

Based on the study on the economic basic data concerning China's grain, we have explored the short-term trend of future grain prices and the long-term safety of grain. Because of the commercialization-oriented-system reform and the advance of modern science and technology in agriculture, the problem of grain safety that existed for a long time, characterized by deficiency or absolute shortage, has substantially changed long before. Influenced by factors such as the rise in oil prices, which stimulates the d...