广东出口贸易与环境污染互动关系探析

从一般经验分析与实证研究角度，对广东1990—2007年间出口贸易与环境污染关系进行探讨，并运用基于向量自回归模型（VAR模型）的广义脉冲响应函数，来考察广东出口贸易与环境污染之间的动态冲击反应，从而解释了在出口增长条件下广东工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量与工业烟尘排放量等污染指标的演变轨迹和阶段特征，认为这三项指标同出口增长的拟合曲线呈现典型的环境库尔涅茨曲线（EKC）特征。因此广东要转交外贸增长方式、增加环境保护投入和加强环境规制管理、优化和提升出口产品结构等，争取尽早跨越EKC拐点，实现环境污染与出口增长之间的解耦。

Analyzing the Interaction between Guangdong's Export Trade and Environmental Pollution

Through the general experience analysis and empirical research, this paper discusses the relationship of Guangdong＇ s exporting trade and environmental pollution during 1990 to 2007 by applying the method of generalized impulse response function based on the VAR model to explain the dynamic impact of Guangdong＇ s export trade to environmental pollution, so it explains the changing tracks and stage features of the discharge amounts of industrial waste water, industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial fumes under export growth. And we find that the fitting curve between pollution discharges and export growth has the typical EKC characteristics. So Guangdong needs to change the growth mode of foreign trade and strengthen environmental regulation and optimize the products to step over the EKC turning point as soon as possible, in order to get the decoupling of environmental protection.