中国高龄老人生活自理能力纵向动态研究

利用"中国老年健康长寿跟踪调查"1998年、2000年、2002年的跟踪数据分析中国高龄老人ADL的变动趋势及其影响因素。个体增长模型结果显示,高龄老人ADL状况随年龄增长出现了明显的下降趋势,ADL个体差异十分显著。个体之间的差异解释了ADL总差异的31.13%。经历三次追踪调查的高龄老人ADL均值较高,状况较好,下降速度较慢;基期具有3-4项残障的高龄老人,未来ADL下降最为迅速;基期ADL水平高的高龄老人,ADL下降较慢。从ADL的个体影响因素来看,对于基期ADL水平影响最大的变量是"年龄"、"疾病状况"以及"居住安排"等,而对观测期ADL变动速度影响最大的变量是"年龄"以及"过去是否经常从事体力劳动"等。

Longitudinal Data Analysis on Activities of Daily Living of Chinese Oldest Old

Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey conducted in 1998,2000 and 2002,this paper discusses the general status,tendency of Activities of Daily Living(ADL) of oldest old,and further explores the possible determinants of Activities of Daily Living(ADL) of Chinese oldest old.Through research,the following results have been obtained: Longitudinal data analysis using individual growth model shows that ADL of oldest old generally decrease with age,but there is a great differential between individuals and 31.13% of total residual variance is explained by individual.In different disabled cohorts,for the oldest old with better ADL ability at baseline,the descending rate of ADL is slower.Whereas oldest old who have 3 or 4 disabilities at baseline,ADL declines sharply.In terms of determinants,the leading factors of ADL change contain age,comorbidity,living arrangement,labor and so on.