我国能源效率地区差异及收敛性分析——基于随机前沿分析和面板单位根的实证研究

探究我国能源效率地区差异现状及趋势是实现"十二五"节能目标的前提条件。在随机前沿分析框架下,对1980-2010年29个省市自治区的能源效率进行测算,并对能源效率地区差异、影响因素进行分析,最后运用面板单位根法对我国地区能源效率进行随机收敛分析。结果显示我国能源效率地区差异较为明显,呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势;在1%显著水平下,煤炭消费比重每下降1%,能源效率将提高0.335%,而产权结构、能源价格指数、出口依存度等每上升1%,能源效率将分别提高0.672%、0.166%、0.518%;东部随机性趋同不存在,而中西部在10%显著水平出现俱乐部收敛,但西部随机性收敛是低水平的。因此,制定差别化的能源消费结构、产权结构、能源价格与出口依存度目标等有利于缩小地区间的能源效率差距并改善东中西部的收敛水平。

Regional Differences and Convergence Analysis of Energy Efficiency in China: on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Panel Unit Root

Exploring status quo and trend of regional differences of energy efficiency in China is the prerequisite of realizing energy saving target of the Twelfth Five-Year Guideline. Based on the stochastic frontier border analysis framework, firstly, the energy efficiency of 29 provinces and autonomous regions from 1980 to 2010 are calculated. Then regional differences and influence factors of energy efficiency are analysed. Finally, by using panel unit root, stochastic convergence analysis of energy efficiency in China is given. Results show that regional differences of energy efficiency are relatively obvious and the trend is from expanding to downsizing significantly;Under the 1% significant level,when coal consumption proportion decreases by 1%,energy efficiency will increase by 0.335% and when title structure,energy price index and export dependence increase by 1%,energy efficiency will increase by 0.672%,0.166% and 0.166% respectively;eastern randomness convergence does not exist but the midwest appears club convergence under 10% significant level,however,the level of western randomness convergence is low. Therefore,formulating differential targets of energy consumption structure,title structure, energy price and export dependency and so on are beneficial to narrow the gap in energy efficiency between regions and improve the level of the convergence of eastern region and Midwest.