新能源汽车“十三五”开局回顾及未来展望

回顾2016年新能源汽车骗补核查、补贴退坡政策的调整等主要事件，测算出新能源汽车对降低进口石油需求量和减少汽车尾气排放量的效果，对当前新能源汽车推广应用的主要影响因素及存在的问题进行分析。展望未来，在政策规范和市场拉动相结合的长效机制下，新能源汽车产业仍会保持增长，但同比增长速度相对2014年和2015年会有下降；多项管理规定的完善及国家标准的颁布实施，将对规范整车、电池产业、充电设施建设和运营产生深远影响；智能网联汽车和燃料电池汽车将成为下一个重要发展方向。

2016 Review and 2017 Outlook of New Energy Vehicles Adoption

This paper reviews the key issues of new energy vehicle(NEV) in 2016,including subsidy fraud audit and amendment of incentive policies,and calculates the reduction amount in terms of import oil and the tailpipe emissions if replaced with NEV. The paper analyzes main influential factors and identifies major issues of current NEV adoption. In the future,the Chinese NEV industry will continue to develop rapidly under the long-term mechanism combined with both government regulation and marketization. But the growth rate of NEV adoption would lower than the 2014 and 2015 levels. The promulgation and implementation of a series of policies and national standards will have a profound impact on regulating the whole industry as well as the charging facilities. Fuel cell vehicles,smart car,and intelligent transportation are the important future direction.