我国农产品生产集聚的时空格局及影响因素——以蔬菜生产为例

利用2002-2013年中国内陆31个省市（区）的面板数据，基于区位商指数分析我国蔬菜生产集聚的变动态势，建立空间面板数据模型，从地理距离和社会经济距离两个不同角度定义空间权重矩阵，对我国蔬菜生产集聚度影响因素和空间相关性进行实证研究。结果表明，我国区域蔬菜生产集中水平具有显著正向空间相关性，经济特征相近的省域之间在蔬菜生产上也具有相互依赖性，但相互依存程度低于地理上相互邻近的省域。相邻区域之间存在较大的空间外溢效应且中部地区（河南、湖北、湖南等）具有高聚集的良性发展态势。影响蔬菜生产集聚的因素有：技术条件、市场需求规模、自然资源及交通运输成本等。

Spatial Temporal Characteristics and Affecting Factors of AgriculturalProduction Agglomeration in China

Using 2002-2013 panel data of Chinese 31 provincial level administrative regions, we establish a spatial econometric model, define spatial weight matrix from geographical distance and socio economic distance, and analyse the spatial correlation of vegetable production. The results show that the regional vegetable production in China has a significant positive spatial correlation. Vegetable production is interdependent between provinces whose economic characteristics are similar. But interdependence is lower than adjacent to each other in geography. There is a large spatial spillover effect between adjacent regions. The Central Region (Henan, Hubei, Hunan, etc.) has a high aggregation of healthy development trend. The factors that affect the production of vegetable production include: technical conditions, market demand scale, natural resources and transportation costs.