承载力视角下土地资源可持续发展评价

从人生存和发展的角度，结合区域的独立性与开放性，构建了基于土地承载力与相对土地承载力的区域土地资源可持续发展评价模型，实证分析了1978-2013年陕西省土地承载力演化过程，以及研究时段内陕西省土地承载力相对全国平均水平的变化趋势。结果表明，陕西省土地承载力的变化可分为积累期、波动期、低谷期和增长期四个阶段。相对全国而言，陕西省1978-2010年土地承载力低于全国平均水平，2011年起逐步高于全国平均水平。现阶段，陕西省土地承载力受农村居民数量和农村居民人均生活支出的影响最为显著。预期未来，城市人均粮食消费支出和城乡人口总数将成为影响其土地承载力的主导因素。今后应更加全面地评价区域土地资源可持续发展水平；在不降低农用地数量和质量的前提下，合理推进城镇化进程；加强对农业生产的资金投入力度，进一步提高土地承载力，以实现人地关系的协调与可持续。

Evaluation of Sustainable Development of Land Resources Based on Perspective of Carrying Capacity

From the perspective of human survival and development, the regional land sustainable development evaluation model was established based on land carrying capacity and relative land carrying capacity. Then the land carrying capacity status and changing trend in Shaanxi province during 1978-2013 was analyzed. At the same time, the land carrying capacity was compared with the whole country based on an improved relative land carrying capacity. The results showed that the land carrying capacity of Shaanxi province could be divided into four stages. They were accumulation period, wave period, trough period and growth period. Its land carrying capacity was lower than the national average level during 1978-2010, and then higher than the national average. The land carrying capacity of Shaanxi province was significantly influenced by the number of rural residents and the average life consumption of rural families at present. The average grain expenditure of urban residents and the total population of the region might be the main factors in the future. Future studies should focus on the combination of independence and openness of the region, to evaluate the sustainable development of land resources, advance urbanization reasonably, improve the level of land carrying capacity, and achieve coordination of people and land without reducing the quality and quantity of agricultural land.