人民币汇率贬值原因及走势分析

本文认为，８０年代以来人民币汇率贬值有其合理性和必然性，其直接原因在于人民币汇率的高估、国内持续的通货膨胀、国际收支问题，它反映出人民币汇率制度、外贸企业制度和宏观调控制度存在的问题。鉴于此，本文指出，虽然从短期看人民币汇率趋于稳定，但从中长期看，人民币汇率仍然有较大的贬值压力。

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Causes of Depreciation and Analyses of Trends

This paper holds that it is reasonable and necessary for the ex change rate of RMB to depreciate since the 1980s. The immediate causes of thedepreciation are the overrating of exchange rate of RMB, domestic inflation,and international payment, which demonstrate some problems that existed orare existing in RMB exchange rate system, China's foreign trade enterprisessystem and macroeconomic control and regulation system. In view of all this,this paper is of opinion that it is true that RMB exchange rate tends to be sta ble on the short range basis, yet there still exists the pressure of further depre ciation of RMB exchange rate.