Using Neural Networks to Model the Behavior and Decisions of Gamblers,in Particular,Cyber-Gamblers |
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Authors: | Victor K Y Chan |
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Institution: | (1) School of Business, Macao Polytechnic Institute, Rua de Luis Gonzaga Gomes, Macao, People’s Republic of China |
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Abstract: | This article describes the use of neural networks (a type of artificial intelligence) and an empirical data sample of, inter
alia, the amounts of bets laid and the winnings/losses made in successive games by a number of cyber-gamblers to longitudinally
model gamblers’ behavior and decisions as to such bet amounts and the temporal trajectory of winnings/losses. The data was
collected by videoing Texas Holdem gamblers at a cyber-gambling website. Six “persistent” gamblers were identified, totaling
675 games. The neural networks on average were able to predict bet amounts and cumulative winnings/losses in successive games
accurately to three decimal places of the dollar. A more important conclusion is that the influence of a gambler’s skills,
strategies, and personality on his/her successive bet amounts and cumulative winnings/losses is almost totally reflected by
the pattern(s) of his/her winnings/losses in the few initial games and his/her gambling account balance. This partially invalidates
gamblers’ illusions and fallacies that they can outperform others or even bankers. For government policy-makers, gambling
industry operators, economists, sociologists, psychiatrists, and psychologists, this article provides models for gamblers’
behavior and decisions. It also explores and exemplifies the usefulness of neural networks and artificial intelligence at
large in the research on gambling. |
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Keywords: | |
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